Australian political parties are known for ousting leaders. It's harder for the Democrats

Several sitting Australian prime ministers have been removed from the top job by their party. But experts say US Democrats would have a far more difficult time ousting Joe Biden.

In the 2010s, the Labor Party replaced then-prime minister Kevin Rudd with Julia Gillard (left), and later put him back in power when her fortunes sank. But, despite internal party concern over the electability of Joe Biden (right), the Democrats' party system makes the selection of a different 2024 presidential candidate far harder. Source: SBS, AAP

Key Points

• Critics of US President Joe Biden say he is not fit to run again in November's election.
• However, his party's delegate system means the Democrats are extremely unlikely to replace him, experts say.
• The Democrats' system of party delegates was introduced in the 1970s.

If Australia's major parties wanted to change leaders, they could call a vote and install a successful candidate immediately afterwards — as they have done several times this century.

In the 2010s, federal Labor politicians voted for Julia Gillard to take the prime ministership from Kevin Rudd then voted for him to take it back from her. Although following the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years, Labor overhauled its leadership change rules in a move that, among other things, gave rank-and-file party members a say.

Several years later, the Liberal Party replaced then-prime minister Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull, and later replaced him with Scott Morrison.

But despite concerns about Joe Biden's recent gaffes, poor debate performance, and unpopularity ahead of the upcoming United States presidential election, experts say Democrats in the United States will find it almost impossible to replace him as the party's candidate.

During Biden's NATO press conference late last week, Biden said delegates are "free to do whatever they want" at the Democratic National Convention in August, including nominating a different candidate.

But he then whispered into the microphone: "It's not going to happen."

Biden has said repeatedly that he is ready to run against Donald Trump and dismissed concerns he is too old to lead the country at 81.

But top Democrats including Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have increased pressure on President Joe Biden to withdraw from his reelection campaign over concerns he cannot defeat Republican challenger Donald Trump, US media reported on Wednesday.

So how do US political party rules differ from Australia and how likely is it that the Democrats vote against Biden?

How does the US system of delegates work?

The US presidential election begins with primary elections, commonly called primaries, through which Democrats and Republicans choose their candidates.

Each US state and territory elects delegates who are pledged to a candidate based on the share of the primary vote they receive.

Biden won almost all the primary elections this year and so will have the vast majority of party delegates pledged to vote for him at the Democratic National Convention.

Democratic Party rules state: "All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them."

Against the backdrop of the civil rights movement, Democrats introduced the system of delegates and primaries in the 1970s, hoping it would further democratise the country's electoral processes.

Unlike in Australia, where parties choose their leaders — and thus prime ministerial candidates — registered party voters in the US choose their party's presidential candidate.

When people register to vote in the US, they generally register as one of three things: a Democrat, a Republican, or an independent.

Could Democratic delegates vote against Joe Biden?

The 'pledge' delegates make is not ironclad and, in theory, the door is left open for them to vote for another candidate.

However this would be highly unlikely, Australian National University professor of international relations Wesley Widmaier told SBS News.

"You can't beat something with nothing. And right now, there is no other option for a candidate — there is no mechanism for picking someone else," he said.

Widmaier said the delegates have worked for Biden all year, and he believes they are committed to him.

So, unless Biden voluntarily stepped aside and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris, he would be running for office in November.

James Metzger is a law lecturer at the University of New South Wales.

He told SBS News it's unlikely the delegates would go rogu, but there's another reason they couldn't vote for another candidate.

"The Democratic National Committee rules allow for the candidates to review the slates of delegates that are being sent by each state or territory," he said.

"So, the Biden administration could, if they think that there are some delegates that are more likely to vote for somebody else, replace that person with somebody who's more loyal to Biden."

The only other option the Democrat leaders would have to remove Biden would be calling on the 25th Amendment.

The amendment allows Congress to approve the vice-president stepping in as president if the president is unable to perform their duties because they are severely incapacitated.

Widmaier says this would be near impossible.

What happens at the Democratic National Convention?

The Democratic National Convention has essentially become a "coronation" for the candidate who won the most primary delegates, Widmaier said.

Put another way, it's a formality for announcing the party's nominee, he said.

Popular Democratic state governors who might want to challenge for the leadership would be very unlikely to defy Biden and put themselves forward at the convention because they'd rather be seen as "loyal soldiers", he added.

"It's not like in 2010 in Australia where Julia and her folks march down to Kevin and say, you're out and we have the votes to take you out. The US Constitution states the president has fixed terms."

Like former presidents Trump and Bill Clinton, Biden will ride out calls for him to step down because there's no mechanism to cut short his presidential term, he said.

Metzger said there's been no precedent in the last 70 years of rogue or unexpected voting at the Democratic National Convention.

"If another candidate emerged who was willing to accept a nomination, or if it seemed like there were enough delegates who were going to vote for somebody other than Biden, then there would have to be negotiations and things like that.

"It would not only be something completely new, but it would be completely chaotic."

The Republican National Convention is underway, and the party has officially nominated Trump — who was president from 2016 to 20202 — to run against Biden for the second consecutive time.

What about the super delegates?

There is another group of Democrats who could, in theory, complicate the vote — the so-called 'superdelegates'.

Superdelegates are unelected party delegates who are allowed to vote for a nominee if it goes to a second ballot at the convention.

But this is only if a candidate fails to get a majority of elected delegates on the first vote.

As such, they are also unlikely to unseat Biden.

At the 2016 Democratic National Convention, superdelegates were accused by failed nominee Bernie Sanders of being too powerful in nominating Hilary Clinton as the party's candidate.