Coalition could be decades away from achieving gender parity in lower house, modelling suggests

New modelling suggests that if half of newly-elected Coalition MPs in each election cycle were female, it could still take until 2094 for equal representation to be achieved in the House of Representatives.

Marise Payne, Scott Morrison and Amanda Stoker at the Cabinet Women's Task Force Meeting at Parliament House in Canberra. Source: AAP

Gender parity in the House of Representatives may not be achieved until the end of the century if the Coalition just "uses the natural flow of the election cycle", according to a progressive Australian think-tank.

New modelling by the The McKell Institute suggests it could take until 2094 for the House of Representatives to be 49 per cent female, if half of newly-elected Coalition MPs in each election cycle are women.

If two in every three new Coalition MPs are female, it could still take until 2046 for the federal lower house to reach gender parity, according to one of the institute's executive directors, James Pawluk.

“It will take even longer if they aren’t able to match Labor’s efforts, which they achieved with a quota system,” Mr Pawluk told SBS News.

After setting quotas of 30 and then 40 per cent, Labor a target of 50 per cent for women MPs within a decade in 2015. 

“The numbers make it pretty clear that if quotas aren’t set, and you just use the natural flow of the electoral cycle to gradually lift the number of women, it could take to the end of the century,” Mr Pawluk said.

“I don’t think anyone who’s paying attention to the debate going on at the moment would think that is acceptable.”

However, the data does rely on various assumptions about electoral outcomes. Mr Pawluk said the research was modelled on the assumption that when MPs choose to retire, they will be replaced by a person of the same gender.

He said if the Coalition ensures retiring male MPs are replaced by women, the timeframe could be sped up.

“Even if that occurs, we’re still looking at the middle of the century when they achieve parity,” Mr Pawluk said.

Anthony Albanese with members of the Labor caucus pose for a photograph on International Women's Day at Parliament House, Wednesday, February 24, 2021. Source: AAP

The think-tank has proposed expanding federal parliament, arguing that an additional 60 House of Representatives seats could ensure immediate gender parity.

“It could be done if the major parties committed to preselect women to all the newly created seats,” Mr Pawluk said.

“That would need to be effectively a bipartisan agreement before any legislation was passed.

“It’s just a question of whether this really is a priority for the government or if it is happy to take a couple of decades on it.”

Minister for Women Marise Payne has been contacted for comment.