Europe's military shake-up: The major defence changes in the face of Vladimir Putin

From the expansion of NATO to the buildup of national military capabilities, Europe's defences are going through fundamental shifts.

Sweden joined NATO earlier this month, ending two centuries of military neutrality. Credit: AAP

Key Points

• European nations have been urged to take "radical and concrete steps" to bolster their defence forces.
• Sweden’s accession to NATO ended two centuries of military neutrality.
• Many EU member states have substantially increased defence spending.

European nations have been urged to take "radical and concrete steps" to bolster their defence forces as the Russian-Ukraine war rolls on.

EU Council President Charles Michael made the comments at the EU leaders summit on Thursday, saying the bloc was at a "pivotal moment".

It came as Russia launched its largest missile attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in weeks.

While leaders debate the continent’s military future and the ongoing war, fundamental shifts in Europe’s defence are already taking place.

Who are NATO's newest members?

One of the key developments in recent months is Sweden’s accession to NATO, ending two centuries of military neutrality.

Sweden adopted a policy of neutrality following the Napoleonic wars after it lost large portions of land to the Russian Empire.

It maintained this neutrality even throughout World Wars One and Two.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a shift, and Sweden applied for NATO membership along with Finland.

The accession of both marks one of the biggest expansions of NATO since the 1990s, adding close to 300,000 active and reserve troops to NATO’s forces.

The countries are now committed to uphold NATO’s security guarantee, which considers an attack on one of its 32 member states as an attack on all.

This is significant considering both countries' well-developed and well-trained militaries, said Matthew Sussex, an associate professor in defence and security at Griffith University.

"This actually does benefit NATO quite considerably in terms of its capabilities," he said.

Is a unified EU military on the table?

As NATO expands, some European leaders have stepped up calls for the continent to develop its military strength independently of the United States.

It comes amid concerns the US could de-prioritise or even abandon NATO entirely if Donald Trump were to become US president.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been especially vocal on this front, stressing Europe can’t rely on continuing US support and must develop its capacity to defend itself independently.

France's President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal in calling for greater independence for European defence. Credit: AAP

Director of European studies at the University of Sydney, Peter Morgan, told SBS News it’s a sentiment shared by some in the international community.

"There's a strong perception in the world that it's time Europe got its own two feet regarding military autonomy," he said.

But not all EU member states agree.

For example, Germany maintains US support is essential if Ukraine is to have any hope of defending itself from Russia.

And Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban remains close to Russia, having opposed many EU initiatives to support Ukraine since the war broke out.

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban has opposed many EU initiatives supporting Ukraine, and remains close with Russia. Source: AP

According to Morgan, any effort to create an independent, unified EU military would receive strong push-back from member states like Hungary and Slovakia.

"They will be exercising their powers to try and stop anything like that happening," he said.

How are individual EU member states responding?

While the creation of a unified European defence force might not be imminent, many of its member states have been substantially increasing defence spending to bolster their national militaries.

Sussex said the rapid buildup of war stocks makes clear just how much European countries are ramping up their military spending.

"By the end of the year, the European Union will actually be producing more artillery shells than the United States," he said.

Some 18 European NATO members will have reached NATO’s agreed defence spending target of 2 per cent of GDP in 2024, with some already surpassing it.

Poland, for example, has committed to spend over 4 per cent of its GDP on defence this year, with plans to double its land forces, positioning it to become “the best-equipped military in Europe,” Sussex said.

And Denmark announced it will expand its military conscription to include women for the first time.

What’s next?

Experts predict this military buildup in Europe will continue for as long as Putin, or someone who agrees with him, is in the Kremlin.

"History has shown that you can't persuade Putin to be a bit less like Putin and the only language he respects is hard power," Sussex said.

This is why some experts are concerned Europe's post-World War Two era of relative peace and security could be coming to an end.

It becomes increasingly difficult to "rely on laws and norms when your adversary is prepared to use short and medium-range ballistic missiles," Sussex said.