In the early hours of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made a bold statement.
"Ukraine will defend itself and will win," he tweeted on 24 February.
Given how Ukrainian troops were heavily outnumbered by Russian forces, the world took Mr Kuleba's defiant comment with a grain of salt.
"Russia’s military is bigger and more powerful than Ukraine," said American news network CNN a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he referred to as a .
The news outlet said 196,000 Ukrainian personnel were pitted against a 900,000-strong Russian military force and retired major general Mick Ryan, who served in the Australian Defence Force for more than 35 years, said Russia was confident of a swift victory.
"They thought they could fight it fast, cheap and easy, and [conquer] Kyiv within days," Mr Ryan told SBS News.
But since the start of the invasion on 24 February.
While Russian forces have gained control over some parts of northern, eastern and southern Ukraine, the Russian army has not been able to take key cities like Odesa, Kharkiv and the capital Kyiv.
"The Russian forces have been brought to a standstill by the Ukrainian forces," Mr Ryan said.
Nothing about the war has been predictable so far.
Yet, ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address to the Australian federal parliament at 5:30pm (AEDT) today, we asked experts to predict how the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end.
Here are the four possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: Russia will retreat for good
Australian National University visiting fellow and expert in communist and post-communist studies, Leonid Petrov, said it’s unlikely but — in the face of Ukraine’s surprisingly strong defence — Russia may retreat any time now.
"What Russia needs to do to stop the war is to completely withdraw from Ukraine, not only from the Donbas area but also return the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine," Dr Petrov told SBS News.
Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, while the Russian forces took control of the Donbas region soon after the start of the invasion of Ukraine in late February.
Dr Petrov said Russia is demonstrating all the classic traits "of a fascist state with almost Nazi-like ideology" and the only way this scenario could unfold is if there were a Russian coup.
But Mr Ryan said the probability of that is extremely slim.
"Putin has had 20 years to build layers of protection around himself. I think the probability of a Russian coup is low," he said.
Scenario 2: Russia will retreat, but only to recover and return
Russia could withdraw its troops from Ukraine temporarily to give respite to the Russian army to prepare for another blitzkrieg (swift attack), Dr Petrov said.
His comments come amid reports Russia has already begun to pull out of the defunct Chernobyl nuclear power site in north Ukraine.
— where radioactive waste is still stored — on 24 February, the first day of the invasion.
But according to news agency AFP, an unnamed United States defence official said on Wednesday: "Chernobyl is [an] area where they are beginning to reposition some of their troops — leaving, walking away from the Chernobyl facility and moving into Belarus."
A satellite image of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, where — according to the latest reports — the Russian troops are retreating. Credit: Maxar/DigitalGlobe/Getty Images
"Russia has already found that it cannot beat the Ukrainians in a straight-up fight, so they are developing an alternative ‘theory of victory’ which allows them to [temporarily] end the war claiming some kind of victory, even if it isn’t the kind of victory we recognise," he said.
"It started in 2014, when Russia attacked Ukraine and annexed the Crimean Peninsula," he said.
And it will continue long after Russia’s predicted temporary retreat because Mr Putin is determined “to return the world to the pre-collapse of the Soviet-era”, he said.
"Putin is delirious – he simply cannot rationally assess the power of the Russian military, which we can see is partly demoralised, partly poorly supplied and definitely outdated in technological terms,” he said.
"But the intention was and will remain for Putin to return the world to the pre-collapse of the Soviet-era," he said.
Scenario 3: Russia will stay put and a new line of control will be drawn
Both Dr Petrov and Mr Ryan agreed the likelihood of the Russian troops entrenching themselves in some of the areas they have conquered in Ukraine, such as Donbas, is the highest.
The conflict could drag out for months, even years, leading to a new line of control, the experts said.
"There’s certainly been speculation, even from Ukrainian government officials, that Russia seeks a partition of Ukraine, similar to North Korea and South Korea," Mr Ryan said.
Mr Ryan predicts Russia will renege control of some northern parts of Ukraine, such as Chernobyl, and use that as a bargaining chip to retain other parts of Ukraine.
"Russians will start big and probably negotiate away a lot of the territory they've captured in the north and the northeast, in order to retain Donbas and Crimea."
Mr Ryan said Russia desperately needs to retain control over Donbas to save face.
"They will seek to retain Donbas – it was one of their state of war aims. And that might be how Putin sells to his own people, a form of victory, that you and I may not recognise, but one he can sell to the Russian people," he said.
Scenario 4: Russia will escalate the conflict into 'World War Three'
US President Joe Biden has warned Russia of severe consequences if it were to use chemical weapons.
"[Russia is] suggesting that Ukraine has biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. That’s a clear sign [Mr Putin is] considering using both of those. He’s already used chemical weapons in the past, and we should be careful of what’s about to come," Mr Biden said on 22 March.
"President Biden has made it very clear that there will be additional responses from NATO and the United States.
"He hasn’t explained what they will be, but I find it difficult to see NATO not stepping in to try and respond to the Russian use of chemical weapons even if it’s just for defensive [purposes]," he said.
Dr Petrov said even an "accidental bombing" of a NATO nation or former Soviet lands, such as Moldova, which is part of the European Union, could lead to Third World War.
NATO is unwilling to wage this war but even a mere mistake could have dire consequences, he said.
"For example, if a shallow drone crosses the front line and hits a school or hospital in Lithuania or Estonia, it could be used by NATO countries as a pretext to, first, provide lethal weapons to Ukraine to defend itself."
And then it would only be a matter of time before NATO will get fully and directly involved in the conflict, he said.
Additional reporting by AFP.
