Foreign policy analysts have warned that heightened rhetoric over Australia's potential involvement in a war against China over Taiwan could be playing right into the hands of Beijing's unification strategy.
China’s increasingly assertive display of intent towards Taiwan in recent months has raised prospects the United States could be forced to protect the democratic island from a future invasion.
Australia's potential involvement in such a conflict has been raised, with domestic debate around the threat that saw Defence Minister Peter Dutton declaring it would be “inconceivable” Australia would not come to the US and Taiwan’s aid.
Macquarie University political analyst Roger Lee Huang said the attention on the potential for conflict risked fuelling a narrative around the idea “war is inevitable because of China’s alleged strength and power."
“There needs to be a healthy debate and understanding war is not imminent [and] the key here is to discourage any war [and] to preserve the status quo,” the Taiwanese-American told SBS News.
“Politicians need to be more responsible about how they portray such a sensitive topic.”
China claims Taiwan as its own territory, which should be taken by force if necessary. Taiwan says it is an independent country and will defend its freedoms and democracy, blaming China for the tensions.
While Australia doesn't formally recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state, it does support unofficial ties with the self-government island.
Tensions across the strait have with the number of incursions by Beijing’s airforce into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone rising.
US President Joe Biden last month publicly declared the United States would defend Taiwan if China chose to invade the island.
Mr Dutton said last Saturday “it would be inconceivable that we wouldn’t support the US in an action if the US chose to take that action,” he told The Australian.
“I think we should be very frank and honest about that, look at all of the facts and circumstances without pre-committing, and maybe there are circumstances where we wouldn’t take up that option, [but] I can’t conceive of those circumstances.”
Natasha Kassam, director of the Lowy Institute’s public opinion foreign policy platform, has warned “overhyping the threat” could unintentionally act to play into China's rhetoric.
“What Taiwan needs now is international support and confidence - not constant reminders of its vulnerability,” she told SBS News.
“Australia should be calm and consistent rather than causing fear around the potential for war.”
Mr Dutton's comments came after former prime minister Paul Keating last week claimed Taiwan was not a vital “interest” for Australia, and urged the nation to avoid being drawn into any military confrontation.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison used a more reserved tone when asked about the possibility of war erupting with China over Taiwan on Thursday.
"We want to ensure there is an appropriate balance in the region to ensure that we don't move down the path that those types of events would realise," he told reporters.
"Australia has always been working with our partners and allies to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific."
Dr Malcolm Davis, senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said he believed Australia should not shy away from warning China against military action.
“The more frank we are to the Chinese the greater the deterrent effect [and] that they’ll realise they can’t invade Taiwan without confronting a military coalition and a wider war,” he told SBS News.
“Trying to downplay it or not discuss it or soft-pedal it is the wrong action because it basically undermines our deterrent capability.”
Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott also recently addressed the prospect of conflict telling a summit in Taipei last month
Foreign Minister Marise Payne has defended the government’s rhetoric over Taiwan - telling The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that Mr Dutton’s comments were focused on preventing war.
“I have said before that conflict is in no one’s interests and differences in relation to Taiwan need to be addressed peacefully, through dialogue and not with the threat or the use of force or coercion,” she said.
Mr Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping this week sought to ease tensions and de-escalate the risk of military conflict over the democratic island.
The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the current status of relations, following months of rising rhetoric and perceived military aggression from Beijing.
Mr Biden said the US opposed any “unilateral changes to the status quo” in the Taiwan Strait and the US remained committed to its current policy.
Mr Xi declared that formal independence for Taiwan remains a “red line” that would force “the mainland to take decisive measures”.
