As Kathy Hsieh watches Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unfold, she says she feels “sad and anxious”.
Born in Taiwan, she has lived in Australia for over 30 years. Now, she’s speaking to family and friends about the fate of her homeland and the prospect of an invasion by China.
“I have relatives and friends in Taiwan, so I do feel anxious. I have female friends [there] saying the government should recruit and train female soldiers. And I have young Taiwanese-Australian friends here in Sydney who believe that if invasion occurs, they are ready - they will fly back to Taiwan to fight,” she said.
“So there is a sentiment of injustice, and that willingness to protect and defend the status quo against foreign threats or invasion.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has drawn commentary over its implications for relations between China and the self-ruling island.
China claims democratic Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to claim it using military force.
But Ms Hsieh is not necessarily worried about an imminent threat from China.
“I think there is a threat, but logically and personally, I feel that it’s not going to happen imminently. But I still feel the stress, I still feel anxious. And I feel sad that Taiwan has been under threat and aggression - not just now; it’s for decades.”
Jeffery Wang says he, like other Taiwanese-Australians, is feeling “apprehensive”.
“My initial reaction would be a sense of shock and sympathy for the people of Ukraine … clearly this war has devastated their country,” he said.
“Taiwanese-Australians like myself who are relatively Westernised, we follow mainstream media from the West. We tend to take the view that it is a pretty worrying situation.”
Jeffery Wang hasn't seen his parents and sister in Taiwan since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Source: Supplied / Jeffery Wang
His mother-in-law has asked that he speak to his parents about coming to Australia - which he believes is "probably a good idea, given the risk of something happening”.
But he says his parents hold a different view, due to media reporting.
“They are not anywhere near as apprehensive … They believe because of the reporting on the Russian invasion not going exactly according to plan, they feel that as a result of Putin's invasion being more difficult than he anticipated, that it means that [Chinese President] Xi Jinping is watching closely and he will not be acting rashly.”
Ms Hsieh says Taiwanese people hold “quite mixed views” - even among her family.
Roger Lee Huang, an expert in political violence at Macquarie University, said he has observed that a large majority of Taiwanese-Australians are sympathetic to the plight of the Ukrainian people.
“There’s no deep cultural, historical or political relationship between Taiwan and Ukraine … but I think a large majority of Taiwanese recognise that this is a threatened democracy; it is people being invaded against their will, who have their own country, own nation and own political system that should be respected,” he said.
He said the Russian invasion has broadly changed rhetoric - among Taiwanese-Australians and people in Taiwan - “that war is real, war can happen”.
“From what I’ve observed, there is an increase of attention and discussion in Taiwan. I’ve talked to friends, whether here or back in Taiwan, where they're thinking, ‘I might need to start looking at where the bomb shelters are' [or] 'can I get trained to become a medic in case of emergency?’
“[These are] normal civilians who … are now saying 'if war happens, what does this mean?'"
But Dr Huang believes there is no indication that “this is a moment for China to take any real action beyond what they have been doing”.
Why are parallels being drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan?
Dr Huang said Ukraine and Taiwan are both small democratic societies with an authoritarian neighbour that is stoking “irredentist claims”.
“The clear comparison is that of this massive, great power using past claims to try to expand their influence and their territorial control. And that makes an easy comparison to Taiwan, given that China has consistently claimed that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory,” he said.
China has applied ongoing pressure to block Taiwan's access to international organisations, such as the United Nations and World Health Assembly.
Taiwan held the Chinese UN seat until 25 October 1971, when it was voted out as representative of the country in favour of the People's Republic of China, which had won a civil war in 1949 and forced the republican government to flee to Taiwan.
The self-ruled island now only has 14 diplomatic allies remaining, mostly small countries in the Pacific, Caribbean, southern Africa and Latin America.
China has stepped up military activity near the self-governing island over the past two years.
Taiwan's air force scrambled again on 14 March to warn away 13 Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone, Taiwan's defence ministry said. Taiwan has complained of regular such missions by the Chinese air force over the past two years, though the aircraft do not get close to Taiwan itself.
This followed the previous large-scale incursion by 39 Chinese aircraft on 23 January.
Dr Huang said Beijing’s “grey zone tactics” - including misinformation, political subversion and pressure on the international community to isolate Taiwan - have intensified.
Speaking last October, Mr Xi warned that Taiwan’s unification with China “must be fulfilled, and will definitely be fulfilled”, with the country aiming to achieve unification by 2049.
He has previously said Beijing reserved the right to use force to bring Taiwan under its control.
China's President Xi Jinping
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has called for the island to beef up vigilance on military activities around the Taiwan Strait in response to the Ukraine crisis.
Dr Huang said that China recognises Ukraine’s independence, but not that of Taiwan.
“So China really doesn’t like this comparison being drawn,” he said.
Speaking last month, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying dismissed any link between them, saying “Taiwan is not Ukraine”.
"Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact."
However Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, speaking to the BBC after her landslide re-election victory in January 2020, said Taiwan's sovereignty was not up for negotiation.
"We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state," she said.
"We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China (Taiwan)."
What are the differences?
While there is varied analysis, Dr Huang said the comparison is in some ways superficial due to marked differences - one being that Ukraine and Russia share a land border.
“Taiwan is separated by a huge body of water. So, the type of conflict that would be fought between China and Taiwan - if and when war actually does happen - will be very different from the conflict you see in Russia and Ukraine.”
Wen-Ti Sung, a Taiwan expert from the Australian Centre of China in the World at the Australian National University, said China understands that the strategic geography and level of security commitment from the United States differs.
“The US and its key Indo-Pacific allies like Australia and Japan are all principally maritime powers, as opposed to continental powers like Russia and China,” he said.
“Taiwan’s strategic geography falls into the maritime realm, which means that other things being equal, Taiwan is likely to be significantly more defensible than the largely land-bound Ukraine, and maritime powers like the above can more effectively contribute to Taiwan’s security and project deterrence vis-à-vis Beijing.”
But Dr Huang said the economic implications of such an invasion would be “immeasurable”, especially given Taiwan’s role in the semiconductor industry.
The island dominates the production of chips that power civilian and military technologies. According to a special Reuters report last year that cites industry estimates, the giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) accounts for more than 90 per cent of global chip outputs.
“Taiwan’s economic value and its role in the global supply chain is far more critical to the entire international political economy,” he said.
“At the moment with Russia, we’ve already seen economic impact. But if you think of that scale in the context of Taiwan, this will be far greater, given that China is the largest trading partner for several countries.”
What can we learn from the Ukraine crisis?
Mr Sung said the crisis has demonstrated that intense Western military aid to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia alone can make a “significant difference”.
“China now has more reason for greater caution, given that we are all learning how difficult it is for even a nuclear-armed great power like Russia to overwhelm a smaller neighbour,” he said.
“Consequently, it will want to cultivate even greater conventional military advantage over Taiwan before it considers a military invasion.”
He said he expects Beijing would reassess the difficulty and advisability of “dividing and conquering the West through its wolf warrior and targeted economic sanctions in future”.
Speaking to the National Press Club on Wednesday, Professor Paul Dibb, the former director of the Defence Intelligence Organisation, said the Chinese president would closely monitor Western actions against Russia and assess how aggressive it could become towards Taiwan without provoking retaliation.
He also said the West’s coordination in sanctioning Russia made it more complicated for the Chinese president to act on Taiwan.
"I never thought that the West would get its act together like that," he said.
Professor Dibb said Australia shouldn’t underestimate the relationship between Beijing and Russia, as the US raised concerns about the prospect of financial and military aid flowing through to the Kremlin.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison also called on China to be transparent about its relationship with Russia, saying he remained disturbed by the “chilling silence” echoing in Beijing following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Where does the US and Australia sit on Taiwan?
Mr Sung said the Ukraine crisis will likely impact future discussions and war planning around the US posture of ‘strategic ambiguity’ on the Taiwan Strait.
Under long-standing policy, the US has only unofficial relations with Taiwan and recognises China diplomatically.
However, the Taiwan Relations Act states: "The United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability."
Last October, President Joe Biden vowed the US would come to Taiwan’s defence, though the White House later said there was no change in policy towards the island.
While Australia doesn't formally recognise the island as a sovereign state, it does support unofficial ties with Taiwan.
When asked by the ABC last week about Australia’s response in the event of a Chinese invasion, Defence Minister Peter Dutton said: “I think we do whatever we can to deter China from acts of aggression in our region, let’s be very honest.
“And the question is, as it is in the Ukraine at the moment, if it’s Taiwan, does it just stop there?”
Minister for Defence Peter Dutton at a press conference after a National Security Committee meeting at Parliament House in Canberra on 1 March, 2022. Source: AAP / MICK TSIKAS
Meanwhile, Mr Wang said he will continue to monitor developments very closely.
“I already told my parents and my sister to prepare to evacuate at a moment’s notice if need be,” he said.
“We need to be prepared for anything - I suppose that’s probably the message. But I do hold optimism that there are ways to de-escalate the situation.”
With AAP, Reuters
