Nate Silver, the most high-profile poll guru in the United States, is predicting a one-in-three chance of Donald Trump winning Tuesday’s presidential election.
It’s a massive change in fortunes for the billionaire businessman and Republican standard-bearer, who at the beginning of last week was sitting on odds of less than 14 per cent according to Mr Silver’s analysis.
Based on the polls, it’s the closest the race has been since a series of poor debate performances from Trump, starting in late September.
Nate Silver’s latest analysis, based on a complex algorithm which responds to national and local polls, as well as complexities such as the Electoral College system, indicates the race could be lost in the final few days.
Silver correctly predicted the outcome of all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election, though notably failed to predict Trump winning the Republican primary.
Nate Silver's analysis as shown on his website, fivethirtyeight.com. Source: fivethirtyeight.com.
Other analyses paint a less dire picture for Democrats - the gives Trump just a 15 per cent chance of winning - but major polls clearly show the race tightening in recent days.
The polls reflect the hit on the Clinton campaign after the FBI announced it had potentially uncovered additional information about Clinton’s use of a private email server while serving as Secretary of State.
No specific information has been revealed so far, but the mere announcement of fresh investigations has thrown the spotlight back onto Clinton’s integrity and engulfed the FBI in accusations of political interference.
“Yes, Donald Trump has a path to victory,” Mr Silver wrote in a blog earlier this week, “Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot.”
Silver noted that a lack of reliable polling in states considered ‘safe’ for Clinton meant they couldn’t be taken for granted, pointing out the important states such as North Carolina and Florida were both essentially 50-50.
Michigan and Wisconsin, which are currently leaning towards Clinton, could be crucial on election night, he said.
