Your Essential Election Guide: The races you need to watch right now

Trump vs Clinton: What to watch and when to watch for it.

Trump v Clinton

Here's exactly what to watch for come election day. Source: AAP

US Presidential elections are won state by state, with party nominees picking up Electoral College votes with each victory. 

The race will be called when a candidate wins enough states to pull together 270 electoral college votes. 

Most states are pretty safe either way - New York is solidly Democrat, Alabama is solidly Republican - which means the race can be won or lost in just a few swing states. 

Here's exactly where you should be looking so you don't miss out on important developments (and can sound smart to everyone else in the room).

We've based our analysis on poll averages from and modelling done by .

Meaningful results will start coming in after midday on Wednesday, Australian Eastern Daylight Time.

Florida

If Florida falls to Clinton, it’s almost impossible for Trump to win the White House.

With a record of producing nail-biters, Florida and its 29 electoral votes is a must-win for Trump.

The Republican nominee just won’t have the numbers in his other marginal states without a Florida win.

Polls close in Florida at 12pm AEDT.

Pennsylvania

If Trump wins here, he’s probably close to pulling off a surprise victory.

The state voted for Obama by solid margins in 2008 and 2012 – Clinton will be having a very bad night if she loses it.

If she loses Pennsylvania, it means she’s probably also lost Florida.

But if Trump can’t win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, it means his path to 270 votes is almost impossible.

He’ll have to win an unlikely streak with Iowa, Nevada, Maine and New Hampshire – or fluke it in some of Clinton’s bigger, safer states like Colorado and Michigan.

The state is known as ‘purple’ – in that it swings from red to blue – it has a high population of African American voters in urban areas (who tend to vote Democrat) and a high population of working class white voters (who tend to support Trump).

Polls close in Pennsylvania at 12pm AEDT.

Ohio

If Clinton wins Ohio, it means Trump's support was far weaker than expected, and he’s almost definitely lost the election.

If Trump wins Ohio and its 18 electoral votes, it will stress out the Clinton team but it doesn’t mean the race is lost.

This is a crucial swing-state which Obama won both years, but is more likely than not going to fall to Trump.

Polls close in Ohio at 11:30am AEDT.

North Carolina

If Clinton wins North Carolina, she’s almost definitely won the election.

North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes are pretty much a must-win for Trump.

It will be a massive fluke if Trump wins without North Carolina – he’ll have to cobble together a patchwork of wins in a range of unlikely states.

The Senate

Republicans currently have control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives – which has been frustrating President Obama’s legislative agenda for years.

This year, riding on the back of Trump’s unpopularity, Democrats are hoping to win back the Senate.

But this race could be even tighter than the race for the White House – the odds are basically 50-50.

The most important Senate races to watch are North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, Indiana, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

If Republicans win three of those states and Democrats win three of those states, it’s probably going to be a tie overall.

Any movement out of that will probably determine the winner.

If the result is a dead heat – with 50 Senators on both sides – then the Vice President can vote to break any ties.

That’s Mike Pence if Trump wins and Tim Kaine if Clinton wins.

Iowa

If Clinton wins here it’s by no means conclusive in itself – the state only has 7 electoral votes – but it does indicate she’s having a very good night.

Iowa is traditionally a pretty reliable Democratic state, but it’s quite likely to fall to Trump this year.

That’s because the state us unusually white, so Clinton can’t rely on her base of minorities.

Polls close in Iowa at 2pm AEDT.

Colorado and Michigan

It’s unlikely, but if Trump does win Colorado or Michigan, then it shows Clinton’s support was much weaker than expected.

Colorado was at one point so safe for Clinton that she pulled her ads off TV and redeployed resources to other states.

Now, with polls tightening, the Trump campaign is hoping for an upset in these states.

If Trump wins these states, he’s probably won the White House.

Polls close in Michigan at 12pm AEDT and in Colorado at 1pm AEDT.

The House

When Trump was doing catastrophically in the polls a few weeks ago, there were murmurings that Democrats could win back control of the House of Representatives.

It’s very unlikely though – the way districts are drawn in Congress .

In 2012 Democrats in The House of Reps received 1.4 million more votes than Republicans, but Republicans still won 33 more seats.

It will come as no surprise that Republicans of drawing the lines which create these districts.

Utah

Utah is unlikely to swing the election, but it is going to be an interesting race to watch.

The safe Republican state risks rejecting Trump – Pollsters say its religious population is turned off by Trump’s vulgarity.

That means there’s an outside chance the state will be won by a third-party candidate – former undercover CIA agent, Evan McMullin.

Polls show there’s an unlikely chance of McMullin winning, but it’s something to keep an eye on if it turns out to be a crazy night.

While McMullin has split the conservative vote, Utah is so heavily Republican that it’s still unlikely Clinton can win.

Polls close in Utah at 1pm AEDT.

Arizona

If we find ourselves looking at Arizona, it will mean Clinton’s support was much stronger than expected.

The traditionally Republican state has a high Hispanic population, so there’s an outside chance that Trump’s unpopularity with Hispanic voters could drive turnout and .  

Senator John McCain is up for re-election in the state, but is expected to win handily. He’s currently showing a 10 point lead in the polls.

Polls close in Arizona at 1pm AEDT.

Nevada Senate Race

Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto is in a tight race to become the first female Hispanic representative in the US Senate.

She’s running against moderate Republican Congressman Joe Heck for a senate seat which could determine which party has control of the Senate for the next two years.

Florida Senate Race

If Clinton pulls off a really solid ground game and gets out her base in Florida, it could spell trouble for Republican Senator Marco Rubio.

Senator Rubio, who ran against Trump in the Republican Primary, is likely to retain his seat, but he does face a strong challenge from Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy. 

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7 min read
Published 8 November 2016 4:20pm
Updated 8 November 2016 11:24pm
By Ben Winsor
Source: The Feed


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