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Champion elect?
Cycling Grand Tours normally welcome a handful of favourites, but is this year’s Giro d’Italia the first to have one contender stand head and shoulders above everyone else?
Tadej Pogacar’s impending debut at the Giro is predicted by many to be one that ends with the Slovenian standing atop the podium in Rome, with little resistance along the way.
The absence of Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel – riders who usually limit his impact – certainly helps his cause, as does the versatile route and style of this year’s stages.
That’s not to say the two-time Tour de France winner won’t have teams plotting against him, but with seven victories in his last 10 days of racing, it’s hard to imagine the 25-year-old wearing anything other than the pink jersey.
Green and gold jersey
From an Australian perspective, the participation and performance of its athletes rank high on the list of importance – aside from the maglia rosa.
Nine Australians have been selected to compete in the Giro, spread across six teams, all with different objectives in mind.
Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) headlines the list; followed by Caleb Ewan, Michael Hepburn and Lucas Plapp (all Team Jayco AlUla); Simon Clarke and Nicholas Schultz (both Israel-Premier Tech); Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck); Christopher Hamilton (dsm-firmenich PostNL); and Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling Team).
O’Connor, who has had a strong season thus far, will fly the flag in the general classification battle and look to build on his early form that includes second-placed finishes at the Tour of the Alps and UAE Tour.
There was speculation that Plapp would also target the GC for the first time in his career at a Grand Tour, but he will instead look towards stage wins in the two time trials and from mountain breakaways. Eddie Dunbar will instead be the leader contending for the pink jersey for the Australian WorldTour squad.
The likes of Ewan and Groves will focus on the flatter finishes, while riders like Schultz, Clarke and Hamilton will work for their team and bide their time for a moment of their own.
Triple threat?
If Vingegaard’s successive victories at the Tour de France have taught us anything, it’s that strength in numbers prevails over Pogacar.
That is the blueprint general classification hopefuls will have to follow at the Italian Grand Tour, including Geraint Thomas as the Welshman aims to avenge his runners-up effort from 2023.
Keeping Pogacar close and wearing him out on the heavier days will be vital to the 37-year-old’s chances, and the Ineos Grenadiers star will need to lean on teammates Thymen Arensman and Tobias Foss to deal the additional damage.
At this stage of Thomas’ career, one that already boasts a Tour de France victory, he cannot defeat his UAE Team Emirates rival one-on-one; it will take a cohesive effort and, as Ineos put it, an ‘aggressive’ three weeks of racing.
Take your time
Much has been said of the 2024 route and the composition of its stages, with race organisers seemingly in favour of an eventful opening fortnight filled with summit finishes and time trials.
But while this year’s Giro is the shortest since 1979 – its total elevation gain also totalling almost 20 per cent less than past iterations – more importance has been placed on time.
Specifically, time trials. Two time trials are not uncommon at the corsa rosa, though one would have to go back to 2017 for an edition that featured more than 68 kilometres against the clock.
Tom Dumoulin won the maglia rosa back then and it was in the first time trial where he took control of the classification, much like Roglic did last year on the penultimate day.
Though Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) will start the favourite, along with specialists like Foss and Plapp, several general classification hopefuls will be looking to make the most of their time before the race returns to the mountains.
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Giro d'Italia 2024 Route Presentation
Killer climbs
The Giro will have its fair share of battles in the mountains, but Stage 15 might be the hardest of them all.
A high-altitude finish in Livigno comes off the back of around 5,400 metres of climbing, complete with three category one climbs – including the Passo del Mortirolo – all taking place inside the final 80 kilometres.
Then, the final week of the Giro d'Italia opens with a stage over the mighty Stelvio. The infamous climb will take the riders to a lung-bursting 2,758 metres above sea level, though with nearly 150 kilometres still to race from the summit, it will be a bold climber who attacks at that stage of the race.
If that stage doesn’t shake up the general classification, Stage 20 and its finish atop the Monte Grappa certainly will.
Beginning in Semonzo, stretching 18.1 kilometres with an average gradient of 8.1%, the Monte Grappa is an incredibly difficult climb to overcome before the final sprint to Rome, which is why organisers have requested two ascents of it to close out the final day in the mountains.
